CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2022-03-08T04:24:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2022-03-08T04:24ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19377/-1
CME Note: The likely source is an eruption from the vicinity of Active Region 2958. Dimming and opening magnetic field lines as well as an EUV wave are observed in SDO AIA 193 A starting around 2022-03-08T03:24Z, while in SDO 304 A, longitudinal brightening occurs along the active region with ejecta and bright post eruptive loops. UPDATE (2022-03-11T19:55Z): There is a weak magnetic shock at 2022-03-11T10:59Z that may possibly be associated with this CME, but the solar wind density data are inconclusive and the solar wind speed and temperature data do not support a CME arrival, and this may be part of the previous CME arrival signature which began 2022-03-10T18:37Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-03-12T03:00Z (-8.0h, +4.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 2.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:
A pair of solar filaments were visible in the northwest solar quadrant US GONG imagery, the western most filament maybe around N25W40 appears to have erupted during the interval 01-0430UT (SDO304) on 08 March 2022. A northwest directed CME is visible in LASCO C2 from around 0430UT on 08 March 2022. Event modelling shows that the associated CME will most likely miss the Earth on late 11 March very early 12 March. Maybe a weak glancing blow.Lead Time: 76.17 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2022-03-08T22:50Z
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